Will Ecowas militarily intervene in Niger Republic?
4 min read
Lamido Sanusi and junta leader in Niger
By Emeka Ugwuonye, Esquire
That was the question my brother asked me this morning. I almost continued to keep quiet over the matter. But the truth cannot be postponed much longer. Nigeria does not have an interest in Niger that could be promoted or furthered by a military invasion of Niger. The stated purpose of restoring the overthrown civilian president of Niger and restoring democracy in that country is dubious. Also, Nigeria cannot realistically hope to achieve the stated purpose by the stated means. The only thing Nigeria has that could justify any action in Niger is the fact that Nigeria is the head of ECOWAS, and ECOWAS feels some symbolic urge to control events in the region.
The countries which have sufficient interest in Niger that could be promoted by aggressive measures at this point are America and France. Niger, being an uranium-rich country, is of interest to America, and as a vital part of French geological influence, one expects France to want to maintain the status quo. These two NATO countries have economic and political interests to protect by intervening militarily in Niger. However, they lack the legal or moral authority to do so. Besides, direct military intervention may be hard to sell to their voters at home. Hence, they need the help of ECOWAS in achieving their objectives in Niger.
As was seen in the cases of Iraq and Libya, when NATO countries have vital interest at stake but lack the moral or legal authority to proceed militarily, they will create a pretext. In Iraq, it was the prevention of weapon of mass destruction and a bogus UN resolution that did it for them. In Libya, it was a combination of dubious UN resolution and the need to protect Libyan civilians against Gaddafi’s army that provided the pretext.
What would be their pretext for intervening in Niger? None, really. The only option is to cajole the weak governments of ECOWAS states to front themselves for the American and French interests. These NATO countries feel they have a favorable situation in Nigeria. A Nigerian President with a huge legitimacy challenge is largely beholding to the international community, led by America. It serves his interest to please NATO and it serves the interest of NATO to have in Nigeria a President that cannot say no to them. It is no surprise therefore that ECOWAS under President Tinubu would be so quick to declare interest in military intervention in Niger with minumum consultation. Such a bellicose trigger-happy disposition is predictable.
However, both NATO and Tinubu are realizing that the situation in Niger holds out a number of banana peels waiting to stepped on by the unwary. First, the Nigerian Northern elite do not buy the justification for military intervention in Niger. A close look at Nigerian history will reveal the intricate links between Northern Nigeria and Niger. It was just a manipulation by the colonial powers (British and French) that created the borders where they exist today between Nigeria and Niger. The people of Northern Nigeria see the people of Niger as their kith and kin, and would not want the devastation of war visited on their brothers in the interest of the West. The Nigeriens understand that too. It is not a surprise that the junta in Niger would snub the Americans, the French and President Tinubu, while welcoming Sanusi, the Emir of Kano.
For Tinubu, he faces an impossible situation. If he goes ahead to please his Western masters, he would lose the critical political base he needs to remain in power in Nigeria. In fact, going ahead to intervene militarily in Niger as he is planning may be inviting the Niger’s political fate to visit Nigeria. On the other hand, the Americans hardly give up on such things as their desire to control the situation in Niger. A second obstacle to ECOWAS military intervention is the fact that Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger (all ECOWAS members and all French spheres of influence) are united against ECOWAS. A military intervention against these three countries at the same time might be too messy and too uncontrollable. A third factor worthy of note is the fact that Russia seems to be interested and will not look away as it did in Libya. That means that Russia will veto any attempt to get a UN resolution to justify invasion. Indeed, because of fear of Russia and Chinese veto of any UN resolution, America and France preferred to come through ECOWAS. Also, with Russia willing to provide military support against any invasion, it becomes hugely difficult to see military invasion as a logical option.
It is too difficult to tell how this will end. The odds are balanced in favor and against invasion. Tinubu will be forced to choose who to offend – the Nigerian Northern political elite or the NATO overlords.
