The wrong way to rig elections — By Emeka Ugwuonye
9 min read
Map of Abia, Enugu and Ekiti State
I chose this ironic heading as my best way to explain how the governorship elections were rigged in Enugu State during the 2023 elections. Otherwise, rigging of elections is a terrible thing and there cannot be a right way to do a terrible thing. This post is an exercise in analogy – seeking to use the amount and variety of relevant similarities between two more events to strengthen a conclusion on what happened during the elections and what is expected to happen in the electoral tribunals. I shall use two other cases of rigging in two other governorship elections to show that anyone who rigs elections the way they were rigged in Enugu in 2023 will definitely fail. There are ways you rig elections and you will get away with it. And there is a particular way you rig elections and you will never get away with it.
It seems that governorship elections in Enugu were rigged in that particular manner that makes it impossible for the party that rigged to get away with it. I will show that what happened in Enugu was very similar to what happened in Ekiti in 2009 and what happened in Abia in 2023. It was partly when I compared the cases of these three states that I came to the conclusion that Chijioke Edeoga of Labour Party will defeat Peter Mbah of the PDP in the courts, just as Fayemi defeated Segun in the courts in Ekiti State.
Before I go further, let me issue a disclaimer again: I have nothing personal against Peter Mbah. I have no personal reason to like Chijioke Edeoga more than I like Peter Mbah. The two men are great sons of Enugu State. My position over this election controversy is driven by my convictions. I am convinced that INEC rigged the governorship elections in Enugu State to favor Peter Mbah. I am convinced that Chijioke Edoga won that election.
Many of the supporters of Peter Mbah, especially those in desperate hope of appointment in the state government he may form have been attacking me on the social media for my views on the elections. Indeed, one of them threatened me to my face that they would unleash their media attack team on me. I laugh at them. First, they don’t seem to realize that Peter Mbah will likely lose in the courts and any political appointment made by Mbah will likely end up in unemployment. Second, they don’t seem to understand politics. Governance has changed dramatically in Enugu State. Even if Peter Mbah were to end up the Governor, the State House of Assembly is dominated by Labour Party legislators. They will not be a rubber stamp for the Governor this time around. They will reject any appointment that is not meritorious. So, those of them that are willing to make enemies to impress Mbah must realize that the game has changed. Either way with the tribunal, we are going to have in Enugu State a government that will govern in a more tolerant and democratic manner than we have seen since 1999. And this gives me joy. The tigbuo-zogbuo politics of Ebeano is over. Those of them that still have that in their blood will soon realize they have no place in Enugu State. Thirdly, anybody who thinks that attacking me on social media would scare me should go and ask IPOB, particularly Emma Powerless. Attacking me motivates me more.
Before I begin the direct comparison of the three states, let me restate what I heard happened in Enugu during the elections. Consistent with the mood of voters especially in the South East, the voters were going for the Labour Party. The voters wanted change at all cost. Anything connected to Peter Obi was selling like hot cake. Labour was sweeping the elections everywhere. In Enugu State, that change frenzy was on overdrive. Edeoga, the Labour candidate, was the man heading to victory consistent with the trend and voting pattern already established in the East. Even other candidates began to claim to be Obidents because they all wanted to benefit from the mood of the voters. As the voting went on that day, Edeoga was winning massively and Mbah was recording a lackluster performance clearly trailing far behind Edeoga.
As the people reckoned from polling unit after polling unit, it was clear to everybody that Edeoga was coasting to victory. There was one local government where Peter Mbah was expected to record his greatest votes and that was Nkanu East. That was the only district where it was clear that Mbah would have a good victory. It was his home turf. Even Edeoga did not expect to beat Mbah in Nkanu East. If counting of votes was done properly in Nkanu East, Mbah would have had a victory there no doubt. But the margin of his victory would not be enough to offset Edeoga’s solid lead in majority of the polling units. So, if anything could be done to prevent Edeoga being declared the winner, that thing had to be done in Nkanu East, where victory was expected for Mbah anyway. And this is where the miscalculation occurred.
To defeat Edeoga, Mbah needed more votes than Nkanu East could produce, given that the number of accredited voters had been stated to be less than seven thousand. Even if you gave all the votes of the accredited voters in Nkanu East to Mbah, that would not be enough to upturn the Edeoga lead. This was the moment the impossible crossed the minds of the PDP and the INEC officer in charge. They had to try to get all the numbers needed from that single Nkanu East. That meant only one thing – they had to find more than eight thousands voters in excess of the accredited voters. That reminds one of what President Trump of the United States was heard on phone begging the election chief in the State of Georgia to find eleven thousand votes he needed to beat Joe Biden in Georgia. PDP and INEC needed eight thousand votes to beat Edeoga. They simply manufactured those eight thousand non-existent votes in Nkanu East alone.
With the above, you can now understand the comparison between Enugu 2023, Ekiti 2009 and Abia 2023. The only difference was that the returning officer in Enugu did not have the guts and conscience to do what his counterparts did in Ekiti and Abia. The idea of comparing these three states came to me after reading an article on The Nations Newspaper, 7th April, 2023, which was written by Femi Adesina, Special Adviser on Media and Publicity to President Muhammadu Buhari. Adesina’s article is titled: “Prof Nnenna Oti: How Buhari loves them”, by Femi Adesina.
To understand what INEC did in Enugu after the March 18, 2023 election, you need to know what happened in Ekiti and Abia, as narrated in Adesina’s article below. Also, that will give you an idea what to expect as the outcome of the pending court cases. Compare what happened in the following three local government areas to understand my analysis – (1) Ido Osi Local Government Area of Ekiti State, (2) Obingwa Local Government Area of Abia State and (3) Nkanu East Local Government of Enugu State. You will see exactly the identical play in these three local government which are separated by time and space, but united by the same rigging style.
“There’s a striking similitude between what happened in the gubernatorial election in Ekiti State in 2009, and Abia State in 2023. And two women were at the center of it all, talking Christianity and conscience. But the denouement of the events were in sharp contrast.
Engineer Segun Oni of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), and Dr. Kayode Fayemi of the Action Congress (AC) were squaring up to become Governor in a keenly contested race. Only one local government area, Ido Osi, would determine the victor.
“Fayemi was leading with over 10,000 votes, when suddenly the PDP manufactured about 16,000 from Ido Osi. Holy Moses! People screamed blue murder. Daylight robbery. But PDP claimed it was where their candidate hailed from, so the votes were genuine.
“Then entered Madam Ayoka Adebayo, the 74-year-old Resident Electoral Commissioner (REC). Despite threats, coercion, intimidation and other sleight of hand, she said a resounding no. She stood her ground, and told the country:
‘“My conscience as a Christian will not allow me to further participate in this process.”
“She reportedly first resigned, but was summoned to Abuja to meet the then Chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), Prof Maurice Iwu. Only God knows what went down, but Madam Ayoka’s Christian conscience could no longer stand, and she returned to Ado Ekiti to announce Oni of PDP as winner of the election. She had admitted the rogue figures from Ido Osi local government area, and it took a legal battle for Fayemi of AC to regain his purloined mandate months later.
“Now see what happened in Abia State at last month’s gubernatorial election. Alex Otti of Labour Party was comfortably leading Okey Ahiwe of the PDP, when final results came from Obingwa local government area. The figures brought were so outrageous that Otti of Labour Party would have been easily knocked off his perch. Jumping Jehoshaphat! Robbery at dawn.
“The people said no. Labour Party cried foul. But the decision was with the REC, Prof Nnenna Oti (not a relation of the Labour Party’s candidate. She hails from Ebonyi State).
“Prof Oti is Vice Chancellor of Federal University of Technology Owerri (FUTO), drafted into the election business like her counterparts round the country. What would she do? Another Christian conscience about to be torpedoed? All eyes were on Abia State and her REC. Collation was suspended, and the results were taken to Abuja for review by National office of INEC.
“But Prof Oti had made her position clear in the unfolding saga. She said: “I shall stand squarely and unapologetically on these principles. The people’s votes and mandate shall stand. The pastor and the mother in me will not permit me to do anything that will adversely affect the future of our children.” Impressive. Inspiring.
“Hours turned to days, as INEC in Abuja scrutinized the figures from Obingwa with a magnifying glass. At the end, rogue votes were weeded out, and genuine ones admitted. And Prof Oti declared Otti as winner. He scored 175, 467 votes, compared to 88,529 scored by Ahiwe of the PDP. And to think that truth would have been murdered on the altar of those fake votes from Obingwa. And the supposed winner and his party would have gone to church a week later for thanksgiving. Simply astounding.
“Righteousness exalts a nation, but sin is a reproach to any people, says the Good Book. What if Abia didn’t have a REC of sterling conviction like Prof Oti? An impostor would have been parading as Governor-elect in the State now.
“During a hero’s welcome she received at FUTO on return home, Prof Oti said: “I have never in my life participated in an election. But duty came calling. I made enquiries from Abuja, and I said ‘if I perish, I perish.’
‘“They came with their threats, they came with their money, they came with their intimidation, I remained unshakable.
‘“I didn’t start today. I stand here before God and Jesus Christ. I have never defrauded anyone. Under me, votes must count, under me, the people’s mandate must be upheld.”
“This position by the erudite professor, a First Class graduate of University of Nigeria, Nsukka, reminds me of the challenge the biblical Samuel gave to the people of Israel, as he anointed a king to rule over them: “Witness against me before the Lord, and before his anointed. Whose ox have I taken; or whose donkey have I taken, or whom have I cheated? Whom have I oppressed? Or of whom have I taken a ransom to blind my eyes? And I will restore it to you” (1 Samuel 12:3). How I wish more Nigerian public office holders can confidently say this.
“President Buhari loves people like Prof Oti. That was how he found integrity in Prof Dora Akunyili (May God rest her soul), and he brought her into national limelight through the Petroleum Trust Fund (PTF) that he headed then. Many other people has he also appointed into positions, simply because they showed capacity, coupled with integrity. That is what he wants for our country.
“Prof Oti has been applauded and appreciated for her courage, fairness and integrity. But that is just the beginning. Something tells me that she will still further be garlanded. May God give us more of her type. Amen and amen.”
NOTE:
To Peter Mbah’s supporters that are offended by my post, I advise them to take heart. I did not meant to hurt them. I just want the best for Enugu State and I hope they will eventually be happy that Enugu State has a person who can say what he feels and the truth without fear. As for Peter Mbah, I actually feel a great deal of empathy toward him. He is a victim of INEC’s incompetence. Instead of spreading the eight thousand votes he needed among several local governments, they tried to get it all from one local government, thereby creating a numerical impossibility.
